The news that SWTOR is transitioning to a "free to play" model (actually a hybrid P2P/F2P model) has sent the gaming/blogging/tweeting world into yet another tizzie. The pro-F2Pers are dancing in the streets to the strains of "Ding! Dong! Subscription's Dead!" Meanwhile, the self-appointed MMO pundits are sitting back in their armchairs, declaring, "I told you so," and trying yet again to nail the coffin shut on SWTOR. While I think the Truth is out there, I doubt we'll ever have enough information to prognosticate the end of the sub-based MMORPG.
Lest We Forget
The solar radiance of WoW shines a huge light on the matter. The elephant in the room has more active subs than all other "AAA" games out there combined; and while there are chinks in Blizzard's armor, I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future. Add to this shining example other veteran MMOs like EVE and Rift (does it count as veteran?) and you begin to see a trend—or at least a plateau.
But look, the "pundits" say, at all the games that have free to play just to survive! LOTRO, STO, CO, AoC. Now add SWTOR, the biggest budget game since . . . EVAHR! And they just cried uncle. ArenaNet didn't even bother, they're launching GW2 as F2P just as they did with the original GW. Clearly the trend is toward free-to-play.
Things are tough all over, even for Blizzard. But
time and again I hear people say
that they are willing to pay for a
quality gaming experience. Some others would rather
not pay a sub on top of a stiff box price. Stil others
refuse to pay a subscription for any game, no matter what. These people are giving their personal philosophies rather than actually commenting on the business models. There are quality games that have no monthly subscriptions. Many more have a hybrid model, where for an upfront sub fee, you get extra content privileges or a stipend in an otherwise RMT shop. Others require a full subscription to play at all. If the quality is there, this is not a problem for me. But when I stop having fun, I don't want to pay anymore.
Everything Must Go!
Tesh commented on the
recent Steam sale as well, and I think it is related. Sales are always great for the consumer. But we all to often think the sellers are doing us a favor, partly because they try to make it seem that they are. The reality is very different.
Imagine you're a shopkeeper. You've paid a hundred bucks for some cat food, 50¢ per can. You figure you can sell for the cat food for twice as much as you paid, $200. You sell about 50 cans at a dollar a piece. With a quarter of your inventory gone, you're half-way to the break-even point. But then sales start to dry up. Everyone willing to pay a dollar for a can of cat food has done so. So you reduce the price. And put a sign up. SALE! Cat Food, 75¢! You sell a few more but then sales dry up again. So you reduce the price again. Given the trend, you'll probably break even, but you won't make your profit goal. Under some circumstances, however, you'll be more worried about cutting your losses than making a profit.
While development costs muddy the water, the cost to produce a game license (because that's what you're really buying) is so close to 0¢ that it may as well be. Therefore, if a company can get any more sales by reducing the price from an initial premium, it is only to their advantage to do so. If it gets to the point where you're only paying a few dollars (or euros) for it on Steam, it's still worth it to the producer to sell it, regardless of whether they are making a profit or recouping a loss.
A game transitioning to free-to-play may be the best thing that ever happened it, turning a foundering title to a profitable venture. If reducing the box price of SWTOR and offering a F2P option induces more players to try it, that can only be good for EA/BioWare. It doesn't alter any perceived flaws in the game, itself.
As I said before, many people are willing to pay a subscription for quality content (much like a magazine sub). They say it's a more honest model. Others want to play for free and buy stuff from the cash shop only if necessary. Luckily, as I also said, most (all?) of the F2P games I've mentioned have the subscription option. Let's face it, the developer/publisher needs to make a profit to continue providing the game service. The money has to come from somewhere.
More Bang For Your Buck
The real question is, Does the game service provide you value? That is, is the game designed to your tastes? Do you enjoy playing? Is your investment in time (and money) worth it? If not, move on. Hopefully, the game will find its audience and succeed. If not, it will fail.
The other question is, Does providing the game service give value to the producer? Are they getting a return on their investment? Don't forget sunk costs, which can be a problem as the executives irrationally try to get back what they put in, perhaps throwing good money after bad. Or focusing too much on the bottom line and not enough on the art.
Regardless of the quality of the game itself, SWTOR may simply have been too ambitious a project, with too much money thrown at it in an attempt or expectation of WoW-like player populations. Like LOTRO and several others, SWTOR will hopefully find its footing in the hybrid model. There are too many games on the market, and they are all—for good or bad—in orbit of the elephant. It is my hope that new projects will have more realistic expectations of player populations, whether P2P or F2P.
As for those that bemoan the communities that may or may not sour as a result of the "rabble" invading the Halls of the Emperor, I say you can find the community you want in every MMO. I, for one, am grateful to be part of the (now) meta-Guild
Republic Mercy Corps, as well as the relatively small community of like-minded bloggers and twitterers I follow. Every game I have played has brought me more friends. We don't always agree, but we always have fun. If we aren't having fun, then why play?